{"id":18840,"date":"2020-03-24T15:38:21","date_gmt":"2020-03-24T19:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cjs.tqa.temporary.site\/website_34d9c6f0\/?p=18840"},"modified":"2020-11-11T17:29:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-11T22:29:41","slug":"the-complexity-of-climate-change-a-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/askesa.com\/website_34d9c6f0\/2020\/03\/the-complexity-of-climate-change-a-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"The Complexity of Climate Change: A Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>\n

By Stephen E. Fauer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Complex scientific issues are now part of the national dialogue. Conversations\nabout energy and climate change, formerly the domain of college campuses and\narcane government offices, are now mainstream. Consequently, it is common for\nthe topic to come up among family and friends, leading to fear and speculation\nabout things that, to be candid, they likely do not understand. In fact, some\nof these topics are beyond the full comprehension of even the most learned of scientists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the political climate has only added to our alarm. I,\npersonally, find it unsettling that politicians tout solutions which, if\nenacted, will change life as we know it. The good intentions of these\npoliticians often have serious unintended — and sometimes intended — consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This commentary offers my personal perspective on energy and\nclimate change that will hopefully shed some light on and dispel some of the\nfear surrounding this very complex issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Change vs. Global Warming: What’s the difference?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change and global warming are two different concepts that\nare often conflated. Climate describes the nature of weather and weather\npatterns (temperature, precipitation, and wind) over a large geographic region.\nClimate change is a relatively new concept that describes changes to weather\nand weather patterns purported to be due to increases in greenhouse gases.\nGlobal warming describes a gradual increase in worldwide ambient temperatures, also\ncommonly associated with an increase in greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenhouse gases are so named because of their ability to absorb\ninfrared radiation, which causes temperatures to increase. There are three\nprinciple greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor. Contrary\nto popular belief, the greenhouse gas with the greatest impact on earth’s\ntemperature is not carbon dioxide, it’s water vapor. And methane is far more\npotent than carbon dioxide because of its greater ability to absorb infrared\nradiation. However, with carbon dioxide’s higher natural concentration in the\natmosphere, its overall impact on ambient temperature is believed to be greater\nthan methane. The following table illustrates the relative abundance of these\ngreenhouse gases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atmospheric Gas<\/strong><\/td> Atmospheric Abundance <\/strong> <\/td>\n Notes<\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
Nitrogen <\/td>78% <\/td>Inert. The most abundant gas of all. <\/td><\/tr>
Oxygen <\/td>21% <\/td>Necessary for almost all life on earth. <\/td><\/tr>
Argon <\/td>0.93% <\/td>Inert <\/td><\/tr>
Carbon Dioxide <\/td>0.04% <\/td>Has increased slightly due to industrialization. This gas is the absolute and only basis for chlorophyll-based plant growth. Plant growth becomes more vigorous as this concentration increases. <\/td><\/tr>
Methane <\/td>0.00017% <\/td>Levels have increased ever so slightly, and scientists are not fully certain why. <\/td><\/tr>
Water Vapor <\/td>0.2 \u2013 4.0% <\/td>Highly variable due to temperature and climate trends. Artic and desserts are have little; tropics tend to be very high. <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, What Causes Climate Change?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Society and politicians have jumped on the carbon dioxide band\nwagon. And, frankly, I don\u2019t know how people can be so certain because, aside\nfrom greenhouse gases, there are three other important and well-documented\ndrivers of climate change that are largely ignored. The first is the natural wobble\nof the earth that changes by 20 to 60 inches every 6-14 years. The next is something\ncalled precession — a change in the orientation of the earth’s rotational axis\n(as with the spin of a gyroscope). It takes the earth 26,000 years to complete one\nprecessional cycle. And the last (and possibly the most important variable) is\nthe sun. Solar variability is constant, enormous, and poorly understood. My\npoint? Increased Carbon dioxide may certainly play a roll. But, in my opinion,\nscientists cannot (and reputable scientists do not) discount these other poorly\nunderstood variables that may — alone or in concert — have the greatest\nimpact of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate predictions: can they be believed?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a dicey question. But it is one that deserves an answer.\nIn my opinion, climate predictions are not credible, and here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, climate predictions are based upon scientific models. Each model consists of many variables. In general, more variables mean less reliability. An easily understood representation of model variability is when meteorologists forecast a hurricane\u2019s path. We see scores of potential storm paths, each predicated upon a different forecast model. Meteorologists don\u2019t know where a hurricane will make landfall until it makes landfall. Think about it: hurricanes happen in real time. Meteorologists use every tool at their disposal to monitor and gauge a hurricane\u2019s progress, yet they never know what it will do. The same applies to winter snowstorms. Meteorologists never know total snowfall amounts until the storm occurs; their predictions are commonly inaccurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, climate \u201cexperts\u201d claim to predict what earth’s climate will\nbe like in 100 years. For me, the best indicator of the accuracy of such\npredictions is their past accuracy. Within the past year, a series of articles\nand news stories have revealed that not even one climate prediction made in the\npast 50 years has come to pass. Not one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is science ever settled?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reference to climate change, you often hear or read that \u201cthe\nscience is settled.\u201d As a scientist, nothing irritates me more than that\nstatement because it is a lie intended to manipulate an ignorant audience.\nScience is never settled. It only requires one scientist to be right to alter the\npath of scientific doctrine. Here are two glaring examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1915, a geologist named Alfred Wegener first proposed the\ntheory of continental drift, today known as plate tectonics. He was derided and\nscorned for his theory. It wasn\u2019t until the 1950s, after Wegener had been dead\nfor over 20 years, that modern science began to support his theory. Today,\nplate tectonics is widely accepted and taught. That is, until a new theory is\nidentified and proven to dispel plate tectonics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in 1968, doctors first suggested that coronary disease was\nrelated to the ingestion of too much cholesterol. Consequently, the Food and Drug\nAdministration created dietary guidelines that became medical dogma for\ndecades. This was best illustrated by the food pyramid that we all learned in\nschool. That is, until it was shown that the very combination of foods that the\nFDA was promoting was causing heart disease in some people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although clich\u00e9, it is a fact that “we don’t know what we\ndon’t know.” Until we all reach a state of omniscience, it is\nirresponsible and disingenuous for anyone to state, “the science is\nsettled.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Word About Cars and Gas Mileage<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)\ninstituted an oil embargo against those countries allied with Israel. This\ncaused a spike in gasoline prices and long lines at the gas pumps. In 1975, the U.S. government enacted Corporate Average Fuel\nEconomy (CAF\u00c9) standards that, along with increased\ngasoline taxes, were designed to curb Americans\u2019 gas consumption. CAF\u00c9 <\/a>Standards were designed to improve the average fuel economy of cars and light\ntrucks produced for sale in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since\nthen, the standards have gradually become more rigorous. 1979 model cars were\nrequired to reach a fleet average of at least 17.2 miles per gallon, while 2016\nmodels were required to achieve over 35 mpg. But today, the rationale for CAF\u00c9 <\/a>standards has changed. No longer\nchiefly concerned with fuel shortages and oil imports, regulators push for\neco-friendly cars to reduce pollution and fight global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But\nthere is a downside to smaller, more efficient fleets of cars: a higher risk of\ndeadly traffic accidents. Lighter cars are more fuel efficient but less\nprotective of their occupants during a high-impact collision. According to Mark\nR. Jacobsen, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, \u201cEach one\nmpg increase in CAF\u00c9 standards causes an additional\n149 fatalities per year.\u201d In other words, the increase in fuel-efficiency\nrequirements that began in 1978 translated into 2,533 more road deaths in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I use the\nabove illustration simply to show that there are myriad unintended consequences\nthat we cannot possibly predict, even though we may have the best of intentions\non implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inconclusive Conclusions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is intended merely to provide food for thought. I do\nnot suggest that my opinions are fully and empirically correct, but I do propose\nthat we all need to be careful about what we believe. Regrettably, there are\nalmost always ulterior motives that underlie what we hear and read. In today\u2019s\nworld, we must be our own truth detectors. I think a bit of skepticism is a\ngood thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you enjoyed this article, please let me know. And if you have\nquestions about a particular environmental topic, please feel free to send me\nan email at sfauer@askesa.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>By Stephen E. Fauer Complex scientific issues are now part of the national dialogue. Conversations about energy and climate change, formerly the domain of college campuses and arcane government offices, are now mainstream. Consequently, it is common for the topic to come up among family…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18841,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[867,809],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-environment"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Complexity of Climate Change: A Commentary<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cjs.tqa.temporary.site\/website_34d9c6f0\/2020\/03\/the-complexity-of-climate-change-a-commentary\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Complexity of Climate Change: A Commentary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Reading Time: 5 minutesBy Stephen E. 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